Why use dividends only when they reflect true ability to pay?

Because dividends are just what the company chooses to pay, not what it can afford to pay.

Example:

Imagine two companies:

  • Company A earns 2 in dividends.

  • Company B earns 8 in dividends.

→ Which one is more valuable?

You can’t tell just from dividends. Why?

  • Maybe Company A is reinvesting the rest wisely.

  • Maybe Company B is overpaying by taking on debt or selling assets.

So if you blindly use dividends, you might:

  • Undervalue a company that is reinvesting efficiently.

  • Overvalue a company that’s paying out unsustainable dividends.


Why use Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) instead?

Because FCFE shows the true cash available to shareholders, after:

  • Paying operating costs and taxes,

  • Covering capital expenditures (to maintain and grow the business),

  • Servicing debt (interest and principal),

  • Considering any new debt raised.

FCFE = True owner cash available

It answers the key question:

“How much cash could this business send to its owners if it wanted to, without hurting its operations or borrowing recklessly?”


Summary: Think like a business owner

MeasureWhat it showsWhen to use
DividendsWhat the company chooses to payOnly if it’s a consistent, sustainable policy that reflects capacity
FCFEWhat the company can afford to payUse when dividends are not aligned with cash-generating ability

Equity is a residual claim

  • Equity holders get whatever is left over after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt payments.